Shareholders might have noticed that NMI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:NMIH) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to US$36.95 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$651m and statutory earnings per share of US$4.43. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for NMI Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NMI Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of US$696.1m in 2025. This would reflect a modest 6.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$4.58, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$700.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.71 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$42.63, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic NMI Holdings analyst has a price target of US$47.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$36.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that NMI Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like NMI Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$42.63, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for NMI Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether NMI Holdings' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.