The U.S. Energy Information Administration (‘EIA’) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), offering a detailed forecast of oil and natural gas markets through 2026. The report highlights a mixed outlook, with production increases and slower demand growth shaping the energy landscape. Brent crude prices are projected to decline, averaging $74 per barrel in 2025 and dropping further to $66 in 2026. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production is set to rise, reaching a record 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, reflecting strong domestic output despite volatile global conditions. On the other hand, natural gas output and demand are expected to hit record highs this year.
For investors eyeing the Oil – Energy sector, resilience is key. Stocks like Sunoco LP SUN, Suncor Energy SU and Gulfport Energy GPOR stand out as solid picks due to their ability to navigate fluctuating commodity prices. With shifting supply-demand dynamics, focusing on companies with strong cash flow, strategic positioning and efficient operations could yield positive returns.
Oil consumption growth continues to lag the pre-pandemic trends. The EIA expects global liquid fuels demand to rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, largely driven by non-OECD Asia. India is expected to increase liquid fuel consumption by 300,000 bpd annually, while China is set to see demand rise by 200,000 bpd per year as economic stimulus efforts bolster petroleum usage.
In the United States, gasoline consumption is projected to remain flat in 2025 due to fuel efficiency improvements outpacing driving growth. A slight decline is expected in 2026 as employment growth slows, reinforcing the shift toward energy-efficient transportation.
On the supply side, the EIA forecasts global liquid fuels production to rise by 1.9 million bpd in 2025 and 1.6 million bpd in 2026, driven by non-OPEC+ countries. The easing of OPEC+ production cuts will contribute an additional 600,000 bpd in 2026, though the group remains cautious about overproduction.
The U.S. leads non-OPEC+ supply growth, with domestic crude production expected to climb from 13.55 million bpd to 13.59 million bpd in 2025, setting another all-time high. Canada, Brazil and Guyana will also play key roles in diversifying the global energy supply.
U.S. natural gas output is expected to reach 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2025 and 107.3 bcf/d in 2026, continuing a record-setting trajectory. Meanwhile, domestic gas consumption will peak at 90.7 bcf/d in 2025 before slightly declining in 2026. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is forecast to rise to $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.20/MMBtu in 2026, supported by strong winter demand and LNG export growth.
While oil prices are expected to decline, strong production levels and resilient demand from key markets will keep the sector dynamic. Natural gas is poised for long-term growth, supported by infrastructure expansion and increasing global demand for LNG. Despite near-term challenges, companies with diversified operations, cost efficiencies, and exposure to high-demand markets will be well-positioned for future gains.
For investors, energy stocks like Sunoco, Suncor Energy and Gulfport Energy remain attractive. These companies benefit from efficient operations, stable cash flows, and strategic market positioning, making them solid choices in a shifting energy landscape.
Sunoco: Sunoco participates in the transportation and supply phase of the U.S. petroleum market across a number of states. The Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) partnership also focuses on motor fuel distribution to convenience stores, independent dealers and commercial customers. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Suncor Energy: Founded in 1917, Alberta-based Suncor Energy is Canada's premier integrated energy company. The Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company’s operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore crude oil and gas production, petroleum refining and product marketing. SU is one of the largest owners of oil sands in the world.
Gulfport Energy: It is a natural gas-focused exploration and production company headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK. Operating primarily in the Utica Shale in Ohio and the SCOOP play in Oklahoma, #2 Ranked Gulfport has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet and a free cash flow-oriented strategy. Of its total production, more than 90% comprises natural gas.
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