美银证券预期，华润啤酒(00291.HK) 去年营收下降1.4%(啤酒跌1.6%；白酒升3%)，净利润下降7.5%。撇除非核心的政府补助及处置收益，核心税前利润可能增长4%。由于中国政府的财政压力，审慎预测这些项目在未来将低于趋势。因此下调2024/25年的每股盈利预测5%/4%，并将目标价下调7%至30.6元。
尽管如此，美银证券仍然重申其“买入”评级，因为预计润啤在艰难的市场中将超越中国前三大啤酒厂，其2024年的销量下降幅度最低(跌3.1%，而青岛啤酒(00168.HK) 为中单位数下降，百威亚太(01876.HK) 降幅超过10%)，这得益于其主动的自救措施。虽然润啤在2025年的销量可能不会像同行那样容易，但鉴于自2018年以来的高额销售和分销投资，与同行相比，该行认为存在显著的成本节省空间。该行还预测其未来三年派息比率，将从2023年的59%提高到70%以上。(ad/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-02-12 12:25。)
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