【建银国际降龙湖目标价至15港元 业绩受房产销售拖累】金十数据2月12日讯，建银国际发表报告，预料龙湖集团(00960.HK)3月公布去年业绩，预计其核心利润将从2023年的113亿元人民币，下跌至2024年料约69亿元人民币，主要原因是销售下降、利润率压缩以及减值损失。销售下降直接源于2023/2024年合约销售大幅下滑14%/42%及土地收购下降15%/77%。该行预期龙湖的毛利率将从2023年的16.9%收窄至2024年的15.1%，这是因为2021年收购的高土地成本项目开始确认，并且2023至2024年的房价下跌造成减值损失。建银国际表示，由于龙湖的物业发展业务可能在2025至2026年继续拖累其盈利和融资，将这两年的盈利预测下调27%至28%。因此，将其目标价从17.5港元下调至15港元。如果龙湖能够进行审慎的再融资和去库存，预计它将能够实现从开发商转型为提供可持续派息和具估值溢价的收租股，维持其跑赢大市评级。
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