金吾财讯 | 中信建投表示。春节消费旺季平稳落地，白酒春节动销稍显平淡，酒企市场策略普遍务实，采取控货、停货等措施稳定市场价格；大众品相对低基数、低库存，且节日餐饮、微信小店等表现相对较强，大众品消费平稳回升。该行指，2025年将持续扩大内需，以提振消费为重点扩大国内有效需求。白酒板块有望随着国内经济提振及居民消费激活，商务场景及大众消费景气度回升，重回消费升级通道，龙头酒企盈利能力有望加速修复。当前白酒板块估值整体仍处于低位，长期投资价值凸显。该行续指，随着政策刺激力度加码，顺周期餐饮链有望率先受益于预期改善。该行持续看好：1）休闲零食、饮料行业保持高景气度，新渠道为行业内公司带来重要增量机会；2）结合持续复苏的餐饮渠道，建议关注具有拓新品或改革预期的调味品、啤酒及餐饮链标的，同时当前糖蜜市场价格环比进一步下降，对于酵母企业提升利润弹性有较大帮助。3）原奶周期拐点渐近，礼赠场景有望修复，乳制品继续结构升级，叠加高股息，性价比凸显。
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