The cost of breakfast is growing as egg prices hit a record high, orange juice, and coffee are on the rise

Yahoo Finance
12 Feb

Inflation around breakfast staples like eggs, orange juice, and coffee are hitting shoppers' wallets. 

According to key data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of eggs were up 53.0% year over year in January. Prices are up 7.2% month over month. Overall grocery inflation is up 1.9% compared to a year ago. 

Nationally, a dozen large Grade A eggs cost $4.95 in January, versus $4.15 in December and $2.52 a year ago. That marked a record high, which was previously $4.82 in January 2023.

Frozen non-carbonated juices and drinks like orange juice jumped 7.7%, while the cost of coffee is up 3.1% year over year. Instant coffee in particular is getting more expensive, up 7.1%.

A multitude of factors led to each situation. 

For eggs, it comes down to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly referred to as bird flu.

"Outbreaks continue to hamper hen numbers and egg production," Texas A&M University professor David Anderson told Yahoo Finance. "Young pullets, [which are] chickens before they are hens laying eggs, have to be raised to replace the normal turnover in hen numbers and they also have to replace those lost to bird flu."

US egg production in December was down 3% from the year prior, totaling 9.12 billion total eggs produced in the month, per the USDA. The agency says that egg prices are expected to increase 20.3% in 2025 but could increase as much as 45.3%. 

National grocers like Costco and Trader Joe's are taking action, placing limits in the midst of shortages. 

"Due to ongoing issues with the supply of eggs, we are currently limiting egg purchases to one dozen per customer, per day, in all Trader Joe’s stores across the country," a Trader Joe's spokesperson told Yahoo Finance in a statement.

Restaurants may be making adjustments as well. Waffle House told Yahoo Finance in a statement that it "implemented a temporary $0.50 per egg surcharge to all menus" to target the "surcharge tied to the unprecedented rise in egg prices," adding that it hopes the "price fluctuations will be short-lived."

When it comes to drinks, keep an eye on orange juice. 

"Agricultural commodities, specifically orange juice and coffee, are at elevated levels and we are assuming that will be the case for 2025, and that's been built into our guidance," Coca-Cola (KO) CFO John Murphy said, adding that, tariffs aside, commodities cost growth will be in the low-single-digit range for 2025.

The impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as ongoing citrus greening, a bacterial disease, have taken a toll on orange juice production in Florida, Ariel Singerman of Citrus Research and Education Center told Yahoo Finance over the phone. The El Niño weather pattern has also impacted production in Brazil, which is the largest producer of orange juice.

Coffee futures (KC=F) have been on a tear in the past two weeks. On Monday, futures nearly exceeded $4.30 per pound, compared to more than $3.20 per pound at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024; they were less than $1 just a few years ago. 

"Weather events and short crops coupled with macroeconomic factors ... puts strain on exporters and importers," Brad Rubin of Wells Fargo's Agri-Food Institute told Yahoo Finance.

Rubin noted that global coffee supplies "remain limited" since the El Niño weather pattern "has impacted South and Central America with below average rainfall for the region." 

That's reduced the prospects for the 2025-2026 arabica coffee crop in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer. 

"Columbia, which is the second largest growing region for arabica, is also recovering from last year’s [El Niño]. Vietnam, the largest producer of Robusta, has also been challenged by unfavorable weather conditions," Rubin said. 

This could spell bad news for consumers buying coffee at the grocery store. 

"We expect J.M. Smucker and Keurig Dr Pepper to raise prices to offset higher coffee costs despite already high retail prices and consumers showing signs of price fatigue," Bank of America wrote in a client note, adding that Keurig premium pods are already at "all-time highs [of $0.55] before pricing in the recent spike in green coffee costs." 

The company previously said "consumption of pods weakens above $0.50 per pod," according to the note. 

Drip coffee price per cup is now at $0.18, versus $0.12 back in 2021.

J.M. Smucker COO John Brase told investors back in December that the company increased prices twice last year as green coffee costs saw "significant inflation," calling it "a volatile and dynamic environment." 

Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.

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