金吾财讯 | 华西证券发布研报指，裕元集团(00551)发布2024年公司盈喜预告，预计24年归母净利同比增长55%-60%，即24年归母净利预计为4.3-4.4亿美元，业绩低于市场预期，我们分析主要由于成本提升以及汇率影响。
该行指，公司作为全球运动鞋制造龙头，具有全球头部运动品牌商份额优势，以及通过垂直一体化布局能够有力把控产业链上下游，做到高品控，快交付。短期来看，虽然24年补库已过，但公司上半年订单仍有望维持双位数增长，得益于扩产、价格降幅收窄、阿迪及ASICS驱动；中期来看，公司在管理改善后重启产能扩张；3）长期来看，对比同行净利率仍有提升空间。长期来看，对比同行净利率仍有提升空间。
该行预测，下调公司24-26年营收预测83.3/91.4/99.9亿美元至81.8/86.9/90.9亿美元；下调24-26年归母净利预测4.7/5.1/5.7亿美元至4.3/5.0/5.6亿美元，对应下调EPS0.29/0.32/0.35美元至0.27/0.31/0.35美元，2025/2/11收盘价16.12港元，对应24-26PE为8/7/6X，股息率5.4%，维持“买入”评级。
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