The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0859 ET - The outlook for the Russian wheat crop is shrinking, with Russian agricultural consulting firm IKAR lowering its forecast for the 2025 wheat crop to 82 million metric tons in a baseline scenario, 2 million tons lower than the firms' previous projection. Additionally, the firm has also cut its outlook for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year to 43 million tons. Insufficient snow cover is a major reason behind the cuts, and analysts speculate that the situation may worsen. "There are currently concerns that low temperatures could lead to frost damage to the growing plants," says Commerzbank in a note. "However, possible snowfall could protect the plants from frost and ensure a better moisture supply later on." CBOT wheat is up 0.4% premarket. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0848 ET - CBOT corn was the most actively-traded futures contract in the ag complex overnight, says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note, but right now corn futures are up only 0.1%. Traders are looking ahead to this afternoon's WASDE, Zeller says, adding that it's "not usually a market-moving report, but corn demand will be under scrutiny with export and ethanol use still strong." Soybeans are flat pre-market, and wheat is up 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0626 ET - Gold futures are broadly flat after setting a record earlier in the session. Futures are down 0.1% at $2,932.30 a troy ounce, having risen as high as $2,968.50 in Asian overnight trading. Gold's fresh high reflects fears over the damage from U.S. tariffs on trade--and threats of retaliation--combined with rising concerns of inflation and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, ActivTrades' Ricardo Evangelista says in a note. A global trade war could cause widespread economic damage, boosting bullion's safe-haven appeal, Evangelista writes. At the same time, U.S. protectionism is set to raise imported goods prices, driving up inflation and further enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against monetary devaluation, Evangelista says. Given this backdrop and with several unresolved epicenters of geopolitical instability, gold's outlook remains bullish with further price gains possible, he adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0542 ET - Rheinmetall's confirmation on Monday that it submitted a nonbinding offer for Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems' marine business signals its intent to position itself in the naval defense business, Alpha Value analyst Saima Hussain says. This would create competition for France's Naval Group, partly owned by Thales, she notes. Rheinmetall is still waiting for feedback from TKMS, which seems to prefer a spinoff instead, Hussain adds. Shares in Rheinmetall are up 0.2% at 732.4 euros. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)

0535 ET - U.S. President Trump's trade turmoil could push OPEC and its allies to extend existing production cuts once again, according to Morgan Stanley. Tariffs and counter tariffs have the potential to hit oil-intensive sectors of the economy the hardest, hurting global growth and demand for crude. "Adding supply into a period of rising trade tensions is not a compelling prospect, and we suspect that OPEC+ will avoid this," analysts at the U.S. bank say. MS says lower OPEC+ output would lead to a balanced market in the second quarter, despite modest inventory builds in the coming months. The bank trimmed its first-quarter forecasts for Brent crude to $75 a barrel from $77.5 a barrel previously. The international oil benchmark is seen at $75 a barrel in the second quarter and at $72.5 a barrel in the second half of the year. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0456 ET - European natural-gas prices edge lower in early trade following the previous session's rally. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract is down 1.2% to 57.32 euros a megawatt hour after breaking above 58 euros, the highest level in two years. Colder temperatures and low wind speeds have boosted gas demand in recent weeks, contributing to a sharp decline in inventories. "EU gas inventory utilization is currently at 48.5%, and we might drop as low as low-30s by the end of the winter," analysts at DNB Markets say. Prices are also driven by a slowdown in global LNG supply growth over the past three months, according to the analysts. However, as gas prices rise, some emerging markets in Asia are experiencing lower demand, leaving more LNG available for Europe. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0432 ET - Base metal prices fall, with LME three-month copper down 0.9% at $9,367 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum down 0.4% at $2,649.50 a ton. Metal prices slip after gaining in Monday's session, with copper and aluminum both up on-week. President Trump proposed over the weekend to raise U.S. aluminum import tariffs to 25% from 10% and remove all exemptions, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. Assuming no exemptions, aluminum and steel tariffs will largely be passed through to U.S. prices only, Goldman writes. Goldman expects the U.S. Midwest aluminum premium to more than double to 50 cents a pound. Separately, markets are pricing in over a 90% probability of a 10% copper import duty by March, though Goldman Sachs retains a baseline estimate of a 70% chance of a 10% tariff by the end of 2025. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0418 ET - Gold futures rise after setting a fresh record earlier in the session. Futures are up 0.1% at $2,937.10 a troy ounce, having risen as high as $2,069 in Asian overnight trading. Gold and the U.S. dollar both extended gains, fuelled by fresh tariff threats from President Trump, Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. Trump said on the weekend that he will implement 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, driving up safe-haven demand for assets like gold. China, Turkey, India and Eastern European nations among others are continuing to buy gold to build their reserves of assets that don't carry Trump or U.S. risks, Ozkardeskaya says. While the tight trade and geopolitical environment could get tenser and uglier very quickly, gold remains the ultimate Trump hedge, and makes $3,000 an ounce easily achievable, she adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0408 ET - Oil prices extend gains from the previous trading session despite fears that President Trump's trade tariffs might hurt global growth. Brent crude and WTI are both up 1% to $76.67 and $73.07 a barrel, respectively, boosted by signs of tighter supplies and rising geopolitical tensions. According to a Bloomberg report, Russian oil production slipped further below the country's OPEC+ quota in January, easing concerns over an oversupplied market even if the Kremlin still has to make up for past overproduction. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange attacks targeting energy infrastructure. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress for cues on future rate policy, as higher rates could slow oil-demand growth. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0145 ET - U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will likely have a limited direct impact on Asian countries, analysts at DBS Group research write in a note. While domestic U.S. players will benefit most from the higher prices, the U.S. depends highly on Canada and Mexico, which will suffer the most, they write. The exposure for Chinese steelmakers is negligible, while aluminum products from China accounted for only 3% of U.S. imports of the metal between 2020 and 2023. Indirect impacts include an increased supply of these metals to regional markets avoiding U.S. tariffs and U.S. inflation pressure from higher material prices. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0140 ET - Outokumpu is closely monitoring developments after the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and says tariffs on imported goods are generally beneficial. The Finland-based stainless steel company says it is the second-largest stainless steel producer in the U.S., and it has a plant in Alabama. Tariffs on imported goods are helpful for the company's operations in the Americas amid significant stainless steel imports from Asia to North America, which Outokumpu says have often negatively impacted the company. It adds that imports have markedly risen in recent years and that it welcomes moves to establish a level playing field in North America. (pierre.bertrand@wsj.com)

0004 ET - Heightened volatility will likely keep demand for gold strong and sticky, Maybank analysts say after the haven asset broke above the $2,900/oz mark. They note reports of a shortage of bullion due to rush in gold shipments in anticipation of tariffs. Concerns that the precious metal will become more expensive due to trade restrictions has spurred frenzied shipments to American buyers, they say. And despite the tentative deal that allowed for a delay in U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the dollar's pullback has likely given gold a boost, they say. They stay bullish on the previous metal, seeing the next resistance at $3,110/oz. Spot gold is last at $2,915/oz after earlier touching fresh highs around $2,940/oz levels. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 11, 2025 09:15 ET (14:15 GMT)

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