Uber Technologies (UBER -2.14%) recently reported mixed financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. Revenue of just under $12 billion came in ahead of Wall Street expectations. But adjusted earnings per share of $0.23 were well below. Nonetheless, shares have been a major winner for investors -- up 125% just in the past 24 months.
You're probably wondering if it's time to take a ride with Uber. Could this transportation-as-a-service stock be your ticket to becoming a millionaire by 2035?
Uber's gross bookings jumped 18% in the fourth quarter to $44.2 billion. The performance was broad-based, with both the mobility and delivery segment putting up 18% gains. This helped propel a 20% increase in revenue.
On a run-rate basis, Uber is bringing in $48 billion in sales and handling a whopping $177 billion in gross booking value. However, there is still lots of growth potential ahead. According to consensus analyst estimates, Uber's revenue is projected to increase at a compound annual rate of 14.4% over the next three years, which is a healthy outlook.
The leadership team sees a ton of opportunity with the Uber One membership. It currently has 30 million members, 60% higher than the year-ago period.
Investors are probably worried about the threat of autonomous vehicle (AV) driving for Uber's business model and growth trajectory. After all, if Tesla is able to commercialize this technology and launch a global fleet of robotaxis, it could seriously undermine what Uber has built. Without drivers, these robotaxis could be a lot cheaper, which could win over consumers.
Luckily, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi is well aware of the rapidly changing tech backdrop. And he's not letting Uber rest on its laurels. "We have conviction that Uber will be the indispensable go-to-market partner for AV players," he said on the Q4 2024 earnings call. "This is undoubtedly one of our top priorities, and we're investing a lot of technical, strategic, and management attention to this topic with lots more to come."
Uber has a direct customer relationship with 171 million users across the globe who all have developed a habit of using the app. That makes it a valuable partner as collaborations with AV players continue to develop.
Uber's bottom-line performance missed analysts' expectations. However, investors should still appreciate how profitable this business has become. Uber reported $2.8 billion in operating income in 2024, translating to a 6.4% margin. This is a massive improvement from the $8.6 billion operating loss registered in 2019.
Consensus analyst estimates see Uber's operating income soaring at a yearly pace of 54.4% between 2024 and 2027. That forecast is much faster than the sales expectations. This demonstrates a scalable business model for Uber, which is the trend we've seen in the past.
Uber's largest expense categories are sales and marketing and research and development. What investors don't want to see are drastic cuts here that impact the ability to grow the user base and gross bookings. But there is certainly leverage here, something that should lead to improving profitability over time.
Shares of Uber have catapulted higher in the past couple of years. Solid fundamental performance has certainly boosted investor sentiment toward the company.
The valuation looks reasonable. Shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 22.7. This is a category-leading enterprise whose profits are soaring and that still has growth potential. That means that Uber at least looks like a smart stock to buy today that has the chance to outperform the broader market over the next few years.
But unless you have a massive sum of capital you can invest upfront, I'm not confident that the business can make you a millionaire in a decade. It's not reasonable to expect the monster share-price gains over the last 24 months to continue indefinitely.
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