It's been a mediocre week for Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOLX) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to US$64.58 in the week since its latest quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.0b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Hologic surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.87 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hologic

Taking into account the latest results, Hologic's 20 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$4.09b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 4.6% to US$3.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.45 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 5.1% to US$80.53, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hologic, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$95.00 and the most bearish at US$70.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 0.5% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 7.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Hologic is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Hologic's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hologic. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Hologic going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Hologic's balance sheet, and whether we think Hologic is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.