Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ULH) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.105 per share on 1st of April. Including this payment, the dividend yield on the stock will be 1.2%, which is a modest boost for shareholders' returns.

While the dividend yield is important for income investors, it is also important to consider any large share price moves, as this will generally outweigh any gains from distributions. Universal Logistics Holdings' stock price has reduced by 33% in the last 3 months, which is not ideal for investors and can explain a sharp increase in the dividend yield.

Check out our latest analysis for Universal Logistics Holdings

Universal Logistics Holdings' Future Dividend Projections Appear Well Covered By Earnings

Even a low dividend yield can be attractive if it is sustained for years on end. Prior to this announcement, Universal Logistics Holdings' earnings easily covered the dividend, but free cash flows were negative. In general, we consider cash flow to be more important than earnings, so we would be cautious about relying on the sustainability of this dividend.

Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 5.6%. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 8.5%, which is in the range that makes us comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.

Dividend Volatility

Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the annual payment back then was $0.28, compared to the most recent full-year payment of $0.42. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 4.1% over that duration. Modest growth in the dividend is good to see, but we think this is offset by historical cuts to the payments. It is hard to live on a dividend income if the company's earnings are not consistent.

The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share is growing. Universal Logistics Holdings has impressed us by growing EPS at 30% per year over the past five years. Rapid earnings growth and a low payout ratio suggest this company has been effectively reinvesting in its business. Should that continue, this company could have a bright future.

In Summary

Overall, it's nice to see a consistent dividend payment, but we think that longer term, the current level of payment might be unsustainable. While the low payout ratio is a redeeming feature, this is offset by the minimal cash to cover the payments. We don't think Universal Logistics Holdings is a great stock to add to your portfolio if income is your focus.

It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. Taking the debate a bit further, we've identified 1 warning sign for Universal Logistics Holdings that investors need to be conscious of moving forward. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.