Australia dollar tests major resistance, kiwi less fortunate

Reuters
12 Feb
Australia dollar tests major resistance, kiwi less fortunate

SYDNEY, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar was testing a major resistance level on Wednesday as the tariff-driven rally in the greenback took a breather, while the kiwi was less fortunate amid expectations of more policy easing from its central bank.

Much is riding on a U.S. consumer price report due later in the day where forecasts are centred on a 0.3% increase in the measure of core inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said overnight that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates.

The Aussie AUD=D3 climbed 0.2% on Wednesday to $0.6306, the highest in two weeks, having edged up 0.3% overnight. It is eyeing a key chart level of $0.6330 and a break there would see the currency more or less recover what it has lost since the plunge on Dec. 18.

The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 was also up 0.2% to $0.5667, although it is still some distance away from the January top of $0.5723. It rose 0.2% overnight.

In the broader market, the yen came under pressure, with those flows benefiting the two antipodeans. The Aussie AUDJPY=R jumped 0.8% to 96.76 yen, while kiwi AUDJPY=R rose 0.9% to 87 yen.

"While AUD showed remarkable calm in the face of Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium, we doubt this will last," said Prashant Newnaha, Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities, adding that Australia is a big metals exporter and has considerable linkages with China.

In the meanwhile, traders are looking to the two central bank meetings in the region next week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to cut its cash rate by a quarter point next Tuesday - its first reduction since late 2020 - but most economists have expected a hawkish tone given the strength in the labour market.

Newnaha from TD Securities expects the RBA to deliver a hawkish cut, providing limited guidance on prospects of a follow-up rate cut. "Make no mistake, we see no pressing need for the RBA to cut, activity data is not demanding it," said Newnaha.

Across the Tasman Sea, things are much different. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut by a half-point to 3.75% next Wednesday, having already lowered rates by a whopping 125 basis points, and the question remains how low the RBA can go given the gloomy economic reality.

"While a 25 bp cut in April looks very likely at this stage, short of hawkish data surprises another 50 bp cut seems likelier than no cut, if there is to be a surprise," said Sharon Zollner, chief economist, New Zealand, at ANZ.

(Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Kim Coghill)

((yifan.qiu@thomsonreuters.com))

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