Breakfast News: Activist Eyes Black Gold

Motley Fool
11 Feb

Breakfast News: Activist Eyes Black Gold

February 11, 2025

Monday's Markets

S&P 500
6,066 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq
19,714 (+0.98%)
Dow
44,470 (+0.38%)
Bitcoin
$97,244 (+2.09%)

Source: Image created by JesterAI.

1. Elliott Builds Phillips 66 Stake

Activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management has grown its stake in Phillips 66 (PSX 2.83%) to $2.5 billion. This puts it in the top five investors, and is likely the start of a raft of changes coming for the oil stock.

  • Latest quarter results show a flip from profit to loss: The company first pushed for changes at Phillips 66 back in late 2023, but is reportedly not happy with the extent of the actions so far. Rumored plans include pushing the business to sell or spin off its midstream division, as well as cutting debt from the current level of $20 billion to $17 billion.
  • BP enjoys its biggest daily gain in two years: Elliott confirmed a stake in BP (BP 6.66%) yesterday, a likely factor in the promise from the latter's CEO to "fundamentally reset" its strategy in this morning's earnings call.

2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Flags Bright Future

Rule Breakers recommendation Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX 0.14%) posted a mixed bag for quarterly results, with revenue beating expectations but earnings missing. There's optimism ahead, with two recent FDA approvals and drugs in late-stage trials.

  • Five new major product launches in the next five years: The bulk of Vertex's revenue came from its flagship cystic fibrosis (CF) treatment, but the 'other product' revenue is forecasted to become more prominent going forward. The product pipeline has a potential patient opportunity of over half a million.
  • Beating the S&P 500 by 3,726% since its first RB rec in 2005: Profitability was hit as combined expenses tallied $1.4 billion, up from $1.2 billion from the same quarter last year. Higher R&D investment is to be expected, but investors will be wanting to see signs that this will start to boost profitability in coming years.

3. What to Watch on Tuesday

Upstart Holdings (UPST 3.04%) is slated to release quarterly results after the market closes. Although it's still forecasted to be loss-making, increased loan approval efficiency thanks to AI enhancements should reduce the loss versus last quarter. Despite lagging the S&P 500 by around 100% in each of its three 2021 Hidden Gems recommendations, there is still high conviction among Fool analysts for this stock to beat the market over the next 5 years.

  • 7 of the 9 Stock Advisor recs for this stock are beating the market: Shopify (SHOP 2.12%) will report ahead of the opening bell, with the holiday season typically being the highest volume quarter. The key gross merchandise volume (GMV) trends will be closely analyzed by investors.
  • A portfolio with over 500 beverage brands: Coca-Cola (KO 1.11%) also releases earnings ahead of the market opening. Shareholders were hoping the Q3 9% organic revenue growth wasn't just a flash in the pan, and they ought to be pleased as both revenue and earnings beat expectations.

4. Microcaps: a Foolish Story

Micro-cap stocks, generally defined as those stocks with market caps of $3 billion (and often much, much less), are small, unknown, and underfollowed by Wall Street analysts. It's also a space filled with businesses hanging on by a thread – or worse, penny stocks of questionable quality.

But their allure lies in the fact that microcaps frequently appear in the list of the market's best-performing stocks. Take Axon Enterprise (AXON -0.20%), which had humble beginnings as Taser International and certainly fell into that microcap category, with a sub-$20 million market cap in June 2001.

  • Zooming out: Axon didn't push past the $1 billion barrier for almost three years (2004 being when it was first recommended in Rule Breakers).
  • Why we like microcaps: Fast forward to 2024, and Axon was the fifth-best-performing S&P 500 stock in 2024, leaping 130% and now boasting a $52 billion market cap. Despite last year's impressive gain, it's still ranked 8th for its ability to beat the market over the next 5 years across all TMF recommendations.

5. Foolish Fun

What winner in your portfolio was a microcap when you first bought it? Discuss with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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