“关税行动和反制措施有可能对全球经济中的石油密集领域尤为构成压力，从而引发石油需求方面的不确定性，”摩根士丹利的Martijn Rats等分析师在报告中称。

　　“这种环境可能还会导致OPEC+再次延长当前的产量配额”。

　　OPEC+延长减产可能会在下半年营造一个“均衡的市场”。

　　由于预期会延长减产，该行对下半年的供应预期下调了40万桶/天。

　　注：在推迟三次之后，OPEC+计划从4月开始小幅增产。

　　由于新制裁措施冲击出口，摩根士丹利还将俄罗斯下半年供应预测下调了15万桶/天。

　　该行将第一季度布伦特原油价格预测下调2.50美元，至每桶75美元。

　　摩根士丹利称，根据所有可观察到的油罐和油轮上的原油和成品油库存，年迄今库存增加了60万桶/天。

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