Upstart Stock Skyrockets 30% After Blowout Earnings--AI Lending Boom in Full Swing

GuruFocus.com
13 Feb

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) just pulled off a shocker, and Wall Street is paying attention. The AI-driven lending platform crushed expectations in Q4, with revenue soaring 56% year-over-year to $219 million. More importantly, it posted an adjusted EPS of $0.26obliterating analyst forecasts of a $0.03 loss. Loan transactions jumped 68% to $2.1 billion, as Upstart's AI-powered underwriting gained serious traction. CEO Dave Girouard noted that the company's business is firing on all cylinders across every product category, setting the stage for an even stronger 2025.

  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with UPST.

The momentum isn't slowing down. Upstart's Q1 2025 outlook calls for $200 million in revenuebeating expectationsalong with an adjusted profit of $16 million. The firm expects a GAAP net loss of $20 million, but an EBITDA projection of $27 million suggests it's inching closer to sustained profitability. The company's conversion rate surged to 19.3%, up from 11.6% a year ago, showcasing the growing efficiency of its AI lending model. Investors clearly like what they see, sending shares up 30% as of 11.54am todayhitting their highest level since April 2022.

With full-year revenue guidance at $1 billion and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin, Upstart's comeback story is gaining serious momentum. The AI lending boom is real, and Upstart is making a case for itself as a dominant force in the space. If it keeps up this pace, the company could soon shift from turnaround play to long-term fintech powerhouse.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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