金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2024年需求增速不及预期，上半年新产能密集释放导致供需失衡加剧，全行业亏损的背景下企业加速窑炉冷修。2025年国内光伏装机有望保持稳中略增，欧美市场增长或将放缓，新兴市场有望保持较高增长，该行预计2025年全球光伏新增装机量或达560-570GW。该行指，由于具备领先的技术、更低的成本以及资金和客户等优势，一线厂商的盈利能力长期跑赢行业平均水平，目前较二线厂商或仍保持15%-20%的毛利率优势。在需求保持快速增长，且价格反弹、成本下降和产能结构持续修复的预期下，该行预计龙头厂商市场竞争优势和业绩成长性有望得到进一步强化。该行续指，光伏玻璃行业产能加速出清，日熔量已从2024年6月高点的11.47万吨/日下降到目前的8.88万吨/日。该行按照2025年全球光伏新增装机容量565GW测算，对应光伏玻璃平均日熔量的需求超10万吨，当前产能尚不能满足旺季需求。综合考虑库存的持续回落和盈利压力下产能的进一步出清，该行认为光伏玻璃价格已经触底，有望在3月下游开工率回暖后迎来反弹，建议关注盈利能力领跑行业的光伏玻璃龙头企业。
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