Bumble BMBL is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 18.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

For the fourth quarter of 2024, BMBL expects total revenues in the range of $256-$262 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $260.11 million, indicating a 4.94% decline from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 19 cents per share, which moved down by 5.3% over the past 30 days. The figure suggests a 200% surge from the year-ago reported figure.

BMBL surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average positive surprise of 8.69%.

Let us see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors to Consider

Bumble has been facing challenges with sticky inflation and high borrowing costs that affected user spending over the past year. This resulted in the company’s first decline in quarterly revenues in the third quarter, since going public in 2021. This trend is likely to have persisted in the fourth quarter. While total paying users grew 11% year over year in the third quarter, Bumble expected net additions to decline $70,000 to $80,000 in the fourth quarter, which might have weighed on revenues in the quarter under review.

Bumble’s recent acquisition of Geneva, of which they are gradually increasing awareness and adoption, is dedicated to building friendships and community. The exploration to expand into non-romantic connection spaces, in addition to its dating platforms, is likely to have helped it provide a more comprehensive range of services for its users. Since Geneva is not generating revenues, it is expected to not have contributed to Bumble’s top line in the fourth quarter, but the increase in operating expenses to integrate the technology and amortization costs is likely to have affected the bottom line in the fourth quarter.

BMBL has also continued to make pricing and paywall optimizations aiming to achieve the right balance of free and paid users. The company has tried to deliver positive incentives to entice the customers to pay for a premium version to get greater value, which is expected to have increased the conversion rate in the fourth quarter, thereby increasing revenues.

Some marketing spend that was originally planned for the third quarter was shifted to the fourth quarter to better align with the company’s fall product release in October. The fall product release introduced several key updates to the Bumble app, addressing customer requests. The update included matching algorithm enhancements, new interest filters and expanded tools for opening moves. The reallocation of expenses resulted in third-quarter margins coming in higher than expected, while fourth-quarter margins are expected to have taken a hit due to the increased marketing spend.

With cheap switching costs and a steady flow of new products and competitors, the dating sector is extremely competitive. With Bumble facing tough competition from Match Group MTCH-owned Tinder and Hinge, among others, the pressure from these competitors is expected to have strained the profit margin and market share of BMBL in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not exactly the case here.

Bumble currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.30% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Autohome ATHM currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.27% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ATHM shares have jumped 7.1% in the trailing 12 months. Autohome is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 20.

Live Nation Entertainment LYV currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.49% and a Zacks Rank #2.

LYV shares have jumped 67.4% in the trailing 12 months. Live Nation Entertainment is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 20.

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Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Autohome Inc. (ATHM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Match Group Inc. (MTCH) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Bumble Inc. (BMBL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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