金吾财讯 | 国泰君安表示，从开门红表现看白酒需求仍较弱、节后总体平稳，该行认为近期股价走势已基本反应市场悲观预期，伴随政策预期回暖白酒板块有望迎来一轮估值修复。该行提到，白酒2025年开门红符合预期，节后总体平稳运行。据渠道调研该行预计开门红白酒大盘下滑幅度在10%以内，考虑批价同比下行，预计销售额下滑幅度大于销量，分价格带来看中低端白酒表现优于高端优于次高端。春节过后茅、五批价整体平稳，价格表现好于此前悲观预期。当前白酒行业库存仍在较高水平，酒企愈发关注库存去化和渠道利润问题，1月以来五粮液、汾酒、李渡、珍酒、今世缘、洋河等品牌先后开启控货，五粮液酝酿减量，次高端大部分品牌旺季放量较少、对回款等要求亦有适度放宽。后续该行预计产业还将先后经历渠道利润底、库存底、业绩底，预期有望逐步企稳。该行指，板块相对低位，有望迎来估值修复。24Q3起白酒业绩增速边际放缓，渠道承载力趋弱，良性增长成为行业共识，从24Q4及25Q1开门红情况来看库存去化进度一般，该行认为近期股价走势已基本反应悲观预期。经过近期调整，截至2月12日收盘贵州茅台/五粮液/泸州老窖股价对应2025E PE分别为20X/15X/12X，山西汾酒/古井贡酒/迎驾贡酒/今世缘分别为15X/13X/14X/14X，估值再度回落至相对低位，政策刺激下有望迎来估值修复。
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