Airbnb (ABNB, Financial) saw its stock jump 15% to reach nine-month highs, breaking out of a prolonged sideways trend after delivering impressive Q4 results. This performance aligns with Expedia Group (EXPE, Financial), which also benefited from robust travel demand.

Despite projecting Q1 revenue slightly below consensus due to FX headwinds, ABNB maintains stable bookings growth compared to last year, sustaining its momentum from Q4.

• Q4 saw a 12% year-over-year increase in Nights and Experiences Booked, a 4-point improvement from Q3. This aligns with ABNB's earlier predictions of strong demand across all markets and lead times.
• After missing earnings estimates in previous quarters, ABNB achieved a double-digit beat in Q4. Although overseas expansion and soft bookings growth have pressured earnings, ABNB plans to invest $200-250 million in underpenetrated overseas markets by 2025, aiming for adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 34.5% in FY25.
• ABNB is also investing in its app, with CEO Brian Chesky aiming for it to become a comprehensive platform for travel and living needs, similar to Amazon's expansion beyond its core offerings.
• For Q1, ABNB expects revenue growth of 4-6% year-over-year, reaching $2.23-2.27 billion. Without FX headwinds, the growth could be 10-12%. Bookings are projected to remain stable, translating to approximately 9.5% growth year-over-year.

Looking ahead, 2025 is poised to be a comeback year for ABNB, bolstered by its overseas expansion and ambitious app development. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, consumers continue to prioritize travel, presenting ABNB with growth opportunities as economic conditions improve.