Australia, NZ dollars battle to break chart barriers, extend rally

Reuters
14 Feb
Australia, NZ dollars battle to break chart barriers, extend rally

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were nearing major resistance targets on Friday after a benign U.S. producer price report and a delay in some tariffs pulled Treasury yields lower and boosted risk sentiment.

Markets remain confident the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 4.10% at a meeting next week, but that policymakers will also be cautious on the outlook for future easing.

"With the labour market stronger than the RBA had been expecting and clearer signs of a recovery in consumer demand we don't expect the tone of the post-meeting statement will be particularly dovish," said Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ.

"We see the easing cycle as being quite shallow with only two rate cuts in total."

Markets are a bit more generous with 75 basis points of easing implied for 2025, but again that would be modest compared to past cycles. 0#AUDIRPR

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut its rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% on February 19, but then signal a slower pace of moves toward 3.0% or 3.25% by year-end. 0#NZDIRPR

All of this is well priced into currencies, leaving the Aussie firm at $0.6315 AUD=D3, having risen 0.6% to a top of $0.6322 overnight. Bulls were eyeing the January high of $0.6330 where a break would open the way for a rally to at least $0.6425.

The kiwi dollar stood at $0.5677 NZD=D3, after also bouncing 0.6% and away from a low of $0.6301 hit early in the week. Resistance now lies around $0.5702 and $0.5723.

Bonds also rallied in the wake of a favourable U.S. producer price report that led analysts to nudge down forecasts for the core inflation figures that the Federal Reserve focuses on.

Three-year Australian futures YTTc1 climbed 6 ticks to 96.20, erasing all the losses suffered after Wednesday's disappointing U.S. consumer price report. Yields on 10-year bonds AU10YT=RR dropped back to 4.404%, from a one-month peak at 4.542%.

Yields on New Zealand 10-year paper NZ10YT=RR dived back to 4.623% after spiking as high as 4.745% on Thursday.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jamie Freed)

((Wayne.Cole@thomsonreuters.com; 612 9171 7144; Reuters Messaging: wayne.cole.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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