【银河期货：短期锌价或区间震荡为主】金十期货2月13日讯，基本面来看：矿端，2月国内北方部分矿山仍处于季节性停产中，国内锌精矿产量再无明显增量，预计3月中旬陆续复产；国内冶炼厂前期已完成冬储叠加进口锌精矿持续流入，冶炼厂原料库存处于相对高位，港口锌精矿库存持续累库。冶炼端，近期冶炼厂亏损有所收窄，但仍处亏损状态。最新数据显示2月锌矿加工费继续上涨，SMM锌精矿国产月度TC均价环比上涨500元/金属吨至2400元/金属吨，SMMZn50进口月度TC均价环比上涨45美元/干吨至25美元/干吨。SMM1月国内锌锭产量环比增加1.06%至52.22万吨，预计2月国内锌锭产量环比减少8.58%至47.71万吨（主因2月自然月天数仅28天)。消费方面，节后锌下游企业逐步复工复产，但华南地区下游普遍复工时间在元宵节之后；考虑到前期下游订单提前透支叠加目前新增订单并无明显改善，预计2月锌消费维持偏弱走势。前期国内政策扶持力度虽大，但传导至锌消费仍需时间，预计2月锌消费难有明显提升。短期锌价或区间震荡为主，但锌供应端放量预期仍存，锌价或再次承压下行，关注国内精炼锌产量及库存情况。
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