“停火导致俄罗斯石油恢复大规模流量的假设是错误的，”Natasha Kaneva等分析师在报告中称。

　　油价周三跌2.4%，创下两个多月来最大跌幅，因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示他将开始与俄罗斯谈判解决俄乌冲突。

　　“俄罗斯减产是其对OPEC+承诺的一部分，而不是为了回应美国或欧洲的制裁”。

　　除了贸易流动的转变之外，最新制裁将产生“有限的影响”。

　　摩根大通仍然预计2025年布伦特均价为73美元/桶，年底价格在“60美元/桶区间中段”。

　　该行预测2026年将“又是一个大量供应过剩的年份，将推动布伦特价格在年底前跌破60美元”，年均水平料为61美元/桶。

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