The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Amotiv Limited (ASX:AOV), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its half-yearly results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with AU$504m revenue coming in 3.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.23 missed the mark badly, arriving some 39% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Amotiv

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Amotiv's twelve analysts is for revenues of AU$1.02b in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.5% to AU$0.63. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$1.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.76 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at AU$12.70, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Amotiv, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$14.40 and the most bearish at AU$9.30 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Amotiv's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Amotiv is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$12.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Amotiv. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Amotiv going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Amotiv .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.