汇丰环球研究指，太平洋航运(02343.HK) 股价自去年9月起累跌33%，期间波罗的海干散货指数跌62%。该行认为指数急跌是基于季节性铁矿石进口及煤炭补库存逊预期，导致指数今年开局更为疲软，在年初跌穿1,000点，等价期租租金(TCE rate)跌穿公司大灵便型及灵便型散货船盈亏平衡水平。
该行料今年全球干散货贸易持平，小宗散货稳定增长被铁矿石及煤炭贸易下降抵销。该行料今年中国铁矿石进口跌2%，反映港口高企库存及房地产业持续疲软。本土生产亦将制约中国与其他主要进口国的煤炭及小麦进口，船只增长将继续超过需求，疲弱运费将不利新承租，加快老旧船只退役或停运，但仍不足平衡需求疲弱。该行料波罗的海干散货指数今明两年各跌15%及8%。此外，红海航运可能恢复为业界带来不利因素，美国对多种商品的惩罚性关税或加剧贸易模式调整，长远或有利运费，但全面关税或转移整体成本至进口，或损害实质需求。
该行下调对太平洋航运2024年至2026年盈利预测14%至72%，主要反映悲观行业展望及现运费用下跌，导致的等价期租租金假设10%至18%下调。该行下调对该股投资评级，由“买入”降至“中性”，目标价由2.5元降至1.75元。(fc/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-02-13 12:25。)
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.