Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying GSK's (LON:GSK) For Its Upcoming Dividend

Simply Wall St.
15 Feb

Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that GSK plc (LON:GSK) is about to go ex-dividend in just four days. The ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date, which is the cut-off date for shareholders to be present on the company's books to be eligible for a dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. Accordingly, GSK investors that purchase the stock on or after the 20th of February will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 10th of April.

The company's next dividend payment will be UK£0.16 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed UK£0.61 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, GSK stock has a trailing yield of around 4.3% on the current share price of UK£14.35. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. So we need to check whether the dividend payments are covered, and if earnings are growing.

See our latest analysis for GSK

Dividends are typically paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. Last year GSK paid out 97% of its profits as dividends to shareholders, suggesting the dividend is not well covered by earnings. That said, even highly profitable companies sometimes might not generate enough cash to pay the dividend, which is why we should always check if the dividend is covered by cash flow. Dividends consumed 66% of the company's free cash flow last year, which is within a normal range for most dividend-paying organisations.

It's good to see that while GSK's dividends were not well covered by profits, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. Still, if this were to happen repeatedly, we'd be concerned about whether the dividend is sustainable in a downturn.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

LSE:GSK Historic Dividend February 15th 2025

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with shrinking earnings are tricky from a dividend perspective. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. Readers will understand then, why we're concerned to see GSK's earnings per share have dropped 12% a year over the past five years. When earnings per share fall, the maximum amount of dividends that can be paid also falls.

Many investors will assess a company's dividend performance by evaluating how much the dividend payments have changed over time. GSK has seen its dividend decline 4.8% per annum on average over the past 10 years, which is not great to see. It's never nice to see earnings and dividends falling, but at least management has cut the dividend rather than potentially risk the company's health in an attempt to maintain it.

Final Takeaway

Is GSK an attractive dividend stock, or better left on the shelf? It's never fun to see a company's earnings per share in retreat. Worse, GSK's paying out a majority of its earnings and more than half its free cash flow. Positive cash flows are good news but it's not a good combination. Overall it doesn't look like the most suitable dividend stock for a long-term buy and hold investor.

Having said that, if you're looking at this stock without much concern for the dividend, you should still be familiar of the risks involved with GSK. For example, we've found 4 warning signs for GSK that we recommend you consider before investing in the business.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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