Donald Trump's return to the White House helped Coinbase Global to blow past analysts' expectations in the fourth quarter, as a more friendly regulatory regime lures investors back to the crypto market.
Coinbase after the close on Thursday reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $4.68, more than double the $2.11 per share expected by analysts, according to FactSet. The company reported $2.27 billion in revenue versus analysts' estimates of $1.84 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Coinbase had an EPS of $1.04 and revenue of $954 million.
Coinbase shares slipped 6% in Friday trading. The stock had risen 8.4% during regular trading on Thursday after competitor Robinhood Markets reported it saw a 700% jump in cryptocurrency revenue in the quarter.
Trump's election was a boon to crypto prices and Coinbase stock, which has risen more than 40% since his victory. That is about the same climb as Bitcoin, which is up 42% to $96,882.
Driving the gains are Trump's promises to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" by ushering in a lighter regulatory regime. Trump has installed or nominated crypto-friendly regulators at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, among other agencies.
The SEC, under acting Chairman Mark Uyeda, is already moving forward with a crypto working group to develop ways for the industry to operate legally in the U.S. The venture capitalist David Sacks is leading a similar effort for the White House.
"We've really hit the dawn of a new era for crypto in light of the shift in administration," said Coinbase Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas, citing the White House's stance as well as pro-crypto lawmakers in Congress.
Congress is considering bills to put guardrails around stablecoins, which are typically pegged to the dollar and backed by reserves, and to make clear how crypto exchanges such as Coinbase should be regulated.
Haas said the bills could open up new revenue opportunities for Coinbase, which co-founded stablecoin USDC, by making the tokens a competitive form of payment. Coinbase executives are also interested in reviving its push to tokenize Coinbase stock and other securities to trade on blockchains, Haas said.
Trump's changes could also bring relief for Coinbase on the litigation front. The SEC under Biden sued Coinbase in 2023 for allegedly operating an unregistered securities exchange. Coinbase has fought those charges. Under Trump's SEC, there is a good likelihood the agency will drop the case or settle in a way that lets Coinbase keep doing business as usual.
Company executives told Barron's last year that a change in the SEC's stance could lead it to offer more tokens for trading and other crypto services that could increase its revenue.
The regulatory changes are a two-edged sword for Coinbase, which might see increased competition from traditional brokers that choose to move into crypto trading in light of friendlier regulators.
Haas said Coinbase wants traditional finance firms to enter crypto since their participation would grow the market overall.
Coinbase said it had $439 billion in trading volume in the fourth quarter, up from $185 billion in the third quarter and $154 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. Analysts had estimated the trading volume would come in at $216 billion, well below the $312 billion Coinbase saw in the first quarter of last year when the approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drove renewed interest in crypto trading.
Another boon for the company was its subscription and services business, which includes revenue the company earns from its stablecoin USDC. The company reported $641 million in revenue from that segment, up from $375 million a year earlier. Analysts expected it to report $611 million in subscription and services revenue.
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