GXO Logistics, Inc. (NYSE:GXO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.0% to US$39.41 in the week after its latest annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$12b were in line with what the analysts predicted, GXO Logistics surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.12 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on GXO Logistics after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for GXO Logistics

After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering GXO Logistics are now predicting revenues of US$12.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 55% to US$1.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.33 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 11% to US$56.81, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on GXO Logistics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$39.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that GXO Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while GXO Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for GXO Logistics. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for GXO Logistics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for GXO Logistics that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.