Shareholders might have noticed that Rapid7, Inc. (NASDAQ:RPD) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.7% to US$35.55 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$844m, although statutory earnings per share came in 18% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.40 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Rapid7

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Rapid7 from 23 analysts is for revenues of US$865.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 2.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 2.0% to US$0.40 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$885.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.68 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 7.7% to US$40.11. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Rapid7 analyst has a price target of US$45.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$35.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rapid7's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Rapid7's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Rapid7.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Rapid7. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Rapid7 going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Rapid7 is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.