BP p.l.c. (LON:BP.) missed earnings with its latest yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$187b revenue coming in 3.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.023 missed the mark badly, arriving some 90% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for BP

Taking into account the latest results, BP's 20 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$188.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 2,381% to US$0.59. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$182.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.62 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on BP after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of UK£4.84, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BP at UK£6.43 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£4.23. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await BP shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BP's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.9% over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 1.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that BP is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for BP. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates it is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BP. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BP going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for BP you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.