Shareholders might have noticed that MKS Instruments, Inc. (NASDAQ:MKSI) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to US$104 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$3.6b were in line with what the analysts predicted, MKS Instruments surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.81 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for MKS Instruments

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MKS Instruments' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$3.81b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 49% to US$4.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.84b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.66 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$134, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic MKS Instruments analyst has a price target of US$160 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that MKS Instruments' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 17% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MKS Instruments is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MKS Instruments. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for MKS Instruments going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for MKS Instruments you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.