【宁德时代锂矿正在恢复生产，碳酸锂供需矛盾将加剧？】金十期货2月13日讯，当前，碳酸锂依然供过于求，锂盐冶炼企业春节后陆续复产，供需矛盾受到市场关注。其中，最受关注的消息是电池巨头宁德时代（CATL）位于江西省的锂矿正在恢复生产。东证期货分析指出，春节假期后碳酸锂期货价格中枢下移的原因主要是供应端出现超预期增量。环比来看，除了预期内盐厂按计划复产外，今年1月智利对中国发运碳酸锂数量环比增加43%，进口压力明显增加；同时，CATL江西云母产能重启也将带来明显供应增量，现阶段市场对复产的真实性及可持续性仍存一定分歧，若项目在成本优化后能稳定盈利，则10万吨产能回归将对年度供需平衡表造成巨大影响。随着供应端超预期放量，即便仍维持乐观的需求预期，2025年2—3月的基本面状态也将由平衡转向累库，锂价上行动能显著削弱。考虑到供应增量兑现仍需一段时间，尽管当前现货市场成交尚可、基差维持偏强水平，但下游采购一定程度上托底了短期价格，后续投资者需持续关注长协比例、现货价格、仓单量等显性指标。
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