Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:ASND) defied analyst predictions to release its annual results, which were ahead of market expectations. The overall earnings picture was okay, with revenues of €364m beating expectations by 13%. Statutory losses were €6.53 per share, only marginally better than what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ascendis Pharma

After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Ascendis Pharma are now predicting revenues of €560.2m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 54% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 48% to €3.27. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €538.7m and losses of €3.43 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and losses per share.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$201, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ascendis Pharma analyst has a price target of US$290 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$164. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ascendis Pharma's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 54% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 72% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Ascendis Pharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$201, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ascendis Pharma analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ascendis Pharma you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.