Sylvamo Corporation (NYSE:SLVM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.2% to US$72.18 in the week after its latest full-year results. Sylvamo reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$3.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$7.18, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Sylvamo

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Sylvamo is for revenues of US$3.45b in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 8.7% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 7.6% to US$6.88 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.55 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.1% to US$86.33. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Sylvamo at US$93.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$80.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Sylvamo is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.1% per year. It's pretty clear that Sylvamo's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Sylvamo going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Sylvamo (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.