Waste Connections, Inc. (NYSE:WCN) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$2.39, some 43% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$8.9b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Waste Connections

After the latest results, the 18 analysts covering Waste Connections are now predicting revenues of US$9.57b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 96% to US$4.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$9.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.71 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$200. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Waste Connections analyst has a price target of US$219 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$149. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Waste Connections' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 167 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Waste Connections is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Waste Connections analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Waste Connections that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.