It's been a sad week for PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF), who've watched their investment drop 17% to US$23.20 in the week since the company reported its annual result. Revenue hit US$33b in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$4.60 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for PBF Energy

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering PBF Energy is for revenues of US$28.8b in 2025. This implies an uncomfortable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$3.13. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$32.2b and losses of US$0.92 per share in 2025. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The consensus price target fell 9.1% to US$26.85, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PBF Energy at US$35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$19.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PBF Energy shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 13% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - PBF Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of PBF Energy's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PBF Energy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with PBF Energy , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.