By Rhiannon Hoyle

Rio Tinto, the world's second-biggest miner by market value, is scheduled to report its full-year earnings for 2024 before the Australian market opens Thursday. Here's what you need to know.

PROFIT FORECAST: The company is expected to report $11.00 billion in underlying earnings for last year, according to data compiled by Visible Alpha. Rio Tinto's 2023 underlying earnings, a closely watched measure of profitability, totaled $11.76 billion.

The company last year received a higher price for the aluminum and copper it sells, but prices for iron ore--which accounts for the majority of Rio Tinto's profits--were weaker.

DIVIDEND FORECAST: Rio Tinto is expected to pay total dividends for 2024 of nearly $3.85 a share, according to the Visible Alpha-compiled consensus. The miner paid $4.35 a share for the year prior.

The miner's Australia-listed stock is up roughly 4% year to date, following a 13% drop last year.

WHAT TO WATCH:

--Investors are keenly watching how miners approach shareholder returns as they lift spending on projects and deals. Morgan Stanley reckons the market could be in for a positive surprise from Rio Tinto. Its analysts are tipping a full-year payout of 60% of underlying earnings, in line with the top end of Rio Tinto's guidance and its payout for 2023. The market consensus is for 56%, according to Visible Alpha.

--Rio Tinto is more exposed to President Trump's aggressive trade policies than some of its peers, and the market is hungry for clues on how the business might be affected. Rio Tinto gets about 15% of its revenue from the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs analysts--partly from copper and borates operations there, but mostly from aluminum it ships from Canada and Australia. Rio Tinto is the largest aluminum exporter to the U.S., representing about 50% of Canada's total aluminum shipments, the analysts say.

--The company's iron ore operations have had a challenging start to 2025 as a number of tropical cyclones have lashed Australia's northwest coast. Year to date, Dampier Port has been closed for 10 days and there have been 13 closure days at Cape Lambert, the miner said Sunday. Rio Tinto has cautioned that will have an impact on first-quarter shipments, although it has stuck to full-year production guidance.

Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 18, 2025 20:31 ET (01:31 GMT)

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