金吾财讯 | 摩根士丹利发研报，更新对百度(09888)2025年首季业绩展望，目前预测宏观经济疲弱、AI广告搜索转型以及季节性因素下，第一季广告收入将按年下降5%，虽然搜寻业务应用生成式AI可推高用户使用率，但相信变现要较迟才可实现。另外大摩预测百度云计算业务首季将按年增长20%，认为百度云盈利能力和利润率自2024年第四季起有所改善，趋势应可持续。该行估计百度核心今年首季利润率下降至19%，主要是因为广告业务增长疲软以及重心向云服务的转移，目前对百度核心Non-GAAP经营利润预测为45亿元人民币，按年下跌18%。大摩并维持百度美股目标价为100美元不变，评级为“与大市同步”，对AI发展下核心搜寻业务影响、广告市场份额流失、变现风险以及日益激烈的云计算行业竞争等持审慎看法。
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