金吾财讯 | 东方财富证券发研报指，我国消费产业结构性供给过剩，“IP+”一方面可提升产品辨识度与品牌溢价，另一方面也可规避线上线下渠道的充分竞争。名创优品(09896)作为IP消费头部企业，具备显着的渠道规模优势以及运营的效率壁垒，有望在全球IP化浪潮中提升市场份额，引领行业成长。该行表示，名创优品凭借合伙人模式(类直营)高速扩张，20-23年平均每年净增门店386家，截至24Q3末，国内共4250家门店。尽管由于需求偏弱导致公司Q1-Q3同店店效承压，但Q4伴随热销IP哈利波特推新以及创新店型如Miniso land发力，同店有望恢复正增长。中长期展望，公司在渠道端的规模优势以及运营效率有望助力持续提升IP消费市场份额，通过渠道迭代、品类扩充(谷子)、线上线下渠道融合，公司同店也有望恢复成长，助力实现24-28年年净增900-1100家全球门店目标。该行预计公司2024-2026年营收为171.8/214.5/257.8亿元，归母净利润分别为25.4/30.6/36.9亿元，对应EPS为2.0/2.4/3.0元，2月14日股价对应PE为20.3/16.8/14.0倍。参考可比公司估值，参考可比公司2025E一致预期平均24xPE，考虑公司目标2024-2028年门店每年净增900-1100家，IP战略下店效有望稳步增长，预计2024E-2026E归母净利润CAGR为20.6%，给予公司2025E22xPE，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
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