Noble Corp PLC (NE) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Moves and Market Challenges

GuruFocus.com
19 Feb
  • Q4 Adjusted EBITDA: $319 million.
  • Q4 Contract Drilling Services Revenue: $882 million.
  • Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 34%.
  • Q4 Cash Flow from Operations: $136 million.
  • Q4 Net Capital Expenditures: $134 million.
  • Q4 Free Cash Flow: $2 million.
  • Full Year 2024 Revenue: $3.1 billion.
  • Full Year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA: $1.1 billion.
  • Total Backlog as of February 17: $5.8 billion.
  • 2025 Revenue Guidance: $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion.
  • 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion.
  • 2025 Capital Expenditures Guidance: $375 million to $425 million.
  • 2025 Cash Taxes Expectation: Approximately 12% of adjusted EBITDA.
  • 2025 Cost to Achieve Synergies: Approximately $40 million.
  • 2025 BOP Lease Payments: $26 million.
  • Return of Capital in Q4 2024: $80 million in dividends and $50 million in share repurchases.
  • Full Year 2024 Return of Capital: Over $575 million.
  • Combined Dividends and Buybacks Since Q4 2022: Surpassed $900 million.
  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with NE.

Release Date: February 18, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE) completed the strategic acquisition of Diamond Offshore, enhancing its position in the deepwater market and achieving significant integration synergies.
  • The company reported a solid Q4 2024 with an adjusted EBITDA of $319 million, marking its first full quarter with Diamond Offshore.
  • Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE) has successfully returned over $575 million to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases.
  • The company secured over $500 million in new contract commitments, strengthening its 2025 and 2026 contract coverage.
  • Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE) anticipates a rebound in deepwater demand by 2026-2027, with potential net demand improvement of up to 10 rigs globally.

Negative Points

  • The global deepwater market is experiencing a mid-cycle lull, with contracted demand dipping from 105 rigs to 100 rigs, affecting utilization rates.
  • Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE) decided to permanently retire several rigs, including the Meltem and Scirocco, due to diminished demand for reactivations.
  • The company faces challenges in the West African market, where demand has decreased from 17-20 rigs to 13 rigs, impacting regional performance.
  • Noble Corp PLC (NYSE:NE) expects some utilization gaps in 2025, with potential softness in the market affecting short-term contract opportunities.
  • The Asia Pacific region has seen a decline in demand, with only 5 UDW units currently contracted compared to a normalized demand of 8-10 units.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you provide more detail on the opportunities for the Black Rhino, Voyager, and Valiant drillships? A: Robert Eifler, President and CEO, explained that while specifics about customers or tenders cannot be disclosed, there are numerous opportunities for these drillships, primarily starting in 2026, with some in 2025. These opportunities span across the "Golden Triangle" regions, involving both tenders and direct negotiations.

Q: What factors influence the rate range for 6th generation rigs, and how do you expect the market to evolve later this year? A: Robert Eifler noted that the rate range is influenced by the specific technical needs of opportunities. For example, D-class submersibles may need to bid at a higher discount compared to 7th generation rigs unless their specific capabilities are required. The market is expected to experience some softness this year, with asset quality being a key differentiator.

Q: What was the rationale behind retiring the Meltem drillship, a high-spec 7G unit? A: Robert Eifler explained that despite potential scenarios where the Meltem could be profitable, the near-term demand for stacked capacity has diminished. The rig had never drilled a well and was activated twice without being used, leading to the decision to retire it rather than compete against active fleet units.

Q: Do you expect other companies to retire their 7G cold-stacked drillships, and how many reactivations do you foresee in the next three years? A: Robert Eifler suggested that while it's difficult to predict, the demand for reactivations has diminished. He anticipates that the market will need time to absorb active supply before considering reactivations, with optimism for demand growth in late 2026 and 2027.

Q: How does the 2025 guidance relate to fleet optimization, and what is the status of the Globetrotter I and II rigs? A: Richard Barker, CFO, stated that over 90% of the 2025 revenue guidance is backed by current contracts. The Globetrotter rigs are being targeted for the intervention market, with several multiyear opportunities being pursued. They are not being bid for standard drilling markets unless in niche situations.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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