NiSource's (NYSE:NI) one-year earnings growth trails the 58% YoY shareholder returns

Simply Wall St.
20 Feb

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the NiSource Inc. (NYSE:NI) share price is 53% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 24% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. Looking back further, the stock price is 41% higher than it was three years ago.

Since the stock has added US$793m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

Check out our latest analysis for NiSource

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

NiSource was able to grow EPS by 2.3% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 53% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NYSE:NI Earnings Per Share Growth February 19th 2025

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on NiSource's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, NiSource's TSR for the last 1 year was 58%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that NiSource has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 58% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 11% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for NiSource (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course NiSource may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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