摩根大通表示，如果乌克兰和俄罗斯之间达成停火或和平协议，对邻近新兴经济体的货币将是“净利好”，不过，这一利好的很大一部分可能已经被消化了。

　　在和平协议的细节更加明朗之前，该行将对乌克兰主权债券保持中性或“市场权重”的立场。即使停火似乎越来越近，达成各方都能接受的可持续和平协议的可能性仍然是个问号。

　　该行估计，主权债务市场预计达成持久和平协议的可能性已经接近70%。在最乐观的情况下，乌克兰债券可能会受到最积极的影响，而其所谓的GDP权证的上行空间则更为“有限”。

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