Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX:MAH) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Macmahon Holdings

How Much Debt Does Macmahon Holdings Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2024 Macmahon Holdings had AU$321.8m of debt, an increase on AU$237.3m, over one year. On the flip side, it has AU$221.8m in cash leading to net debt of about AU$100.0m.

How Healthy Is Macmahon Holdings' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Macmahon Holdings had liabilities of AU$701.4m due within a year, and liabilities of AU$363.3m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of AU$221.8m and AU$468.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total AU$374.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Macmahon Holdings has a market capitalization of AU$644.0m, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

While Macmahon Holdings's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.46 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 3.5 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Unfortunately, Macmahon Holdings's EBIT flopped 17% over the last four quarters. If that sort of decline is not arrested, then the managing its debt will be harder than selling broccoli flavoured ice-cream for a premium. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Macmahon Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Macmahon Holdings actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

We feel some trepidation about Macmahon Holdings's difficulty EBIT growth rate, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. We think that Macmahon Holdings's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Macmahon Holdings that you should be aware of.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.