金吾财讯 | 希慎兴业(00014)连日走高，日线图录得4连阳，截至发稿，报12.98港元，涨幅3.18%，成交额2304.36万港元。消息面上，汇丰环球研究发表报告，公司2024财年业绩优于预期。集团下半年基本利润按年增16%，而上半年则下降1%。若不计入永续资本证券持有人的贡献，盈利将按年增25%至7.3亿港元。各主要业务(零售、办公和住宅)的租金在下半年均呈现改善迹象。该行认为，在市场充满挑战的情况下，该公司的业绩是前几年制定的扩张策略的成果。1月利园商场租户销售额和客流量均实现了积极增长。虽然该行预计负债比率将在2026年底利园八期项目竣工之前呈上升趋势，但由于盈利可见性有所改善，投资者可对股息前景感到放心。该行将2025/26年盈利预测上调1.9%及1.4%，以反映该行零售租金更高的假设。维持希慎兴业“买入”评级及目标价18.4港元。摩根士丹利表示，希慎去年基本溢利升11%至15.38亿元，高过该行预期7%，主要因为写字楼收入胜预期。该行指，全年每股派息持平于1.08元，即股息率9.1%，符合预期。而2024年的现金分红为11亿元，仍不足以覆盖估算的现金收益8亿元。考虑前景依然充满挑战，该行维持对希慎“减持”评级，目标价13港元。
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