金吾财讯 | 医药外包概念股盘初强势，截至发稿，泰格医药(03347)涨8.41%，昭衍新药(06127）涨6.62%，康龙化成(03759)涨6.22%，凯莱英(06821)涨4.4%，药明康德(02359)涨2.81%。消息面上，国泰君安发布研报称，CXO行业经历投融资扰动、新冠高基数、内卷价格战、地缘政治扰动等多重因素扰动后，当前调整接近尾声。中期看，技术创新迭代升级，AI助力药物发现阶段特色筛选技术以及ADC、PROTAC、CGT、多肽及小核酸药物等新的范式重塑药物开发格局，拉动相关增量外包需求。API方面，受地缘政治冲突影响下上游原材料成本上涨，去库周期下终端产品价格压力及印度产业链竞争，原料药行业盈利能力承压。短期看，2024年行业盈利能力触底回升，去库周期接近尾声。华安证券研报指出，CXO板块估值仍处于相对低位，基本面已步入拐点期，板块较具性价比。需求端，随着全球降息周期的开启，流动性增加，全球生物医药投融资已逐步恢复。多数CXO海外业务已初现环比改善趋势；价格端，目前价格竞争已趋缓，叠加众多企业提质增效的推行，利润率水平有望逐步回升。业绩端，2025年大订单高基数已基本消化出清，CXO行业有望进入稳增长阶段。
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