金吾财讯 | 建银国际发研报指，百度(BIDU/09888)第四季度的业绩略超该行的预期。其中一个亮点是人工智能云业务收入，从2024年第三季度的11%增长至2024年第四季度的26%。人工智能云业务的强劲增长是百度人工智能转型的有力证明。DeepSeek的推出正迅速加快企业对基础模型的采用，这让该行对百度2025财年的云业务收入前景更为乐观（同比增长22%），不过该行也认识到，人工智能搜索和人工智能聊天机器人的兴起，可能要求百度对其生成式人工智能搜索功能的货币化策略采取更为审慎的态度。该行预计货币化将在2025财年中期左右生效，届时百度最先进的大语言模型文心一言4.5计划推出，并将开源，以巩固其庞大的用户基础。该行预计广告收入将在2025财年下半年恢复增长。该行将2025财年和2026财年的盈利预测下调2%，主要是考虑到快速增长的低利润率云业务在营收组合中所占比例上升。鉴于百度在人工智能领域的长期潜力以及广告业务的复苏前景，该行维持对百度的“跑赢大盘”评级，同时将其目标股价从107.60美元上调至108.00美元。
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