金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，纺服行业作为贸易摩擦聚焦的行业之一，去年下半年来已对加征关税的不同情境进行了交易。但该行判断，特朗普最新的“对等关税”方案存在预期差：由于将考虑各国关税税率、市场准入、贸易壁垒等因素，或将使美国对东南亚及南亚各国关税政策存在一定差异。该行指，制造端来看，头部企业产能布局持续调整应对关税扰动，但方案实施带来的不同产地关税差异，或将带来代工厂订单分化表现，同时若本次由代工厂部分分摊关税，或将对毛利率带来一定冲击；品牌端来看，短期关税提升7.5%或将冲击大众品牌1.5%的毛利率，但品牌中长期通过提价&采购优化有望对冲影响。目前看，对等关税方案仍在美方内部规划中，预计短期不会立即执行，该行建议后续持续关注后续不同国家具体的关税执行方案。推荐标的上，该行重点建议关注产能分布多元化，未来有能力应对各国差异化关税政策、以及订单与经营明确向好的优质龙头制造公司。
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