金吾财讯 | 中信建投表示,1月土方机械销量表现超预期,存在春节影响的情况下,1月挖掘机、装载机总体销量均实现增长,其中国内销量接近持平,出口销量微增,表现好于预期。目前工程机械企业海外营收占比接近 50%,部分企业远超50%,且海外市场毛利率高于国内市场,利润大头已经来自海外,该行认为后续视角应该更加注重海外市场。在美国降息大背景下,该行更加看好非美出海链,预计2025年开始工程机械海外有望延续较好增长,结构上以亚非拉为代表的发展中国家增长更好。国内市场2024年基本筑底,也进入新一轮更新换代周期,2024年以来的设备更新换代、化债等政策让国内市场回暖的确定性增强,后续有望实现温和复苏。从企业自身角度来看,头部企业均贯彻高质量发展,国企积极推进内部改革,民企也积极推进内部降本,预计头部企业利润率将继续提升。
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