【券商聚焦】国泰君安:2025年中国股市的投资主线在科技成长

金吾财讯
17 Feb

金吾财讯 | 国泰君安表示,2025年中国股市的投资主线在科技成长。在2月4日“科技依然是先锋”报告中,该行提出应高度重视中国DeepSeek的突破,其创新标志着中国AI发展进入重要转折,其意义不仅仅在于拉近中美AI差异。对证券投资而言,更重要的是商业机会(产业分析的预期得以建立)、社会资本(不缺流动性)与人心共识(冒险精神出现)的凝聚,这是2020-2021新能源牛市之后少有出现的,这也标志着2025年科技“转型牛”主线确立的基石。从更微观的角度看,科技成长风格也会受益于:1)在全球实际利率的下行周期中,中国企业新一轮资本开支有望提速,且在过往紧缩周期中收缩更多的民营科技行业有望领衔。2)国内标志性的技术/产业突破后,人工智能、机器人、自动驾驶等新兴产业开始出现大量跨界涌入,产业渗透率加速扩张。3)“投新、投早、投小、投硬科技”的政策基石与中长期资金的入市,亦将对新兴科技带来预期与流动性的改善。

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