金吾财讯 | 招银国际发布美东汽车(01268)业绩前瞻，经营利润或环比保持稳定，现金流健康：根据该行的渠道调研，宝马和雷萨品牌2H24的经销商利润都环比有所提升，但这部分增量或被保时捷品牌的利润持续下滑所抵消，该行预测美东2H24毛利润环比下滑2%至7.92亿元。同时，该行预计美东24财年的自由现金流为4.58亿元，与23财年基本持平。该行指，商誉与无形资产减值风险大幅提升，也可能为25财年轻装上阵做好准备：基于保时捷品牌在过去2年利润的持续下降以及美东在23财年和1H24已经做出的少量但持续上涨的商誉与无形资产减值，该行认为公司可能会在2H24做出较大规模的减值。该行预计公司24财年的商誉和无形资产的减值或达13亿元（2H24：11.5亿元）。基于此假设，该行预计2H24的净亏损为10.8亿元，而除减值外的净利润为7,000万元。另外，该行认为保时捷2025年在中国或有望触底：随着保时捷管理层的变动以及在中国市场的不断试错，该行认为保时捷会正视中国的挑战，并优化销量和价格，此举或使其经销商受益，尤其对保时捷占比较高的美东而言。再叠加已赎回的可转债来降低利息以及可能的减值来降低每年的无形资产摊销，该行上调美东25财年的净利润7%至4.08亿元。该行维持买入评级，维持2.8港元目标价，仍基于该行预测的25财年的9倍市盈率。
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