金吾财讯 | 港股三大股指午后走弱,截至发稿,恒生指跌1.3%,国企指跌1.38%,恒科指跌2.17%。
板块方面,贵金属、文化传媒、锂电板块均走弱。蓝筹中,百度集团(09888)跌8.34%,比亚迪电子(00285)跌8.24%,阿里健康(00241)跌7.8%,京东健康(06618)跌6.47%,舜宇光学科技(02382)跌5.37%。
消息面上,中金策略表示,上周,港股市场延续春节后的强势并加速上涨,DeepSeek引发的市场对科技股甚至整体中国资产的重估热情不断扩散。恒生科技大涨7.3%,超过去年10月高点,创2022年初以来新高,恒生指数也上涨7.0%,距离去年10月初高点23,100仅有一步之遥。该行续指,静态看,情绪与估值在短期无疑是透支的。技术指标出现透支迹象,如衡量超买程度的相对强弱指标(14日RSI)升至78.3(10月初高点为90.9),卖空成交也有增加,与南向资金内部的分歧类似。情绪上,经过本轮上涨,恒生指数风险溢价已回落至6.15%,接近去年10月初和2023年初市场高点所对应的6%水平,换言之,当前市场计入的乐观程度与投资者站在那两个时间点对未来的预期是相当的。反过来,如果我们以6%的风险溢价代入到当前环境中,静态假设无风险利率和盈利短期内很难发生大幅改变,那么恒指点位对应23,000点左右。
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